End of the De Minimis Rule: Impact on Japanese Pokémon Cards
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The Japanese Pokémon card market has always been a fascinating—and sometimes frustrating—corner of the hobby. Prices in the U.S. don’t simply reflect the Japanese MSRP; they’re shaped by import costs, shipping, supply and demand cycles, and hype around specific sets. Now, with the end of the de minimis rule in the United States, another major variable has entered the mix: tariffs.
Let’s break down what this means for collectors, resellers, and businesses alike.
What Was the De Minimis Rule?
Until now, U.S. importers (including everyday collectors buying a single box on eBay) could bring in up to $800 worth of goods without paying import taxes or tariffs.
That rule goes away on August 29, 2025.
From that date forward, every import—whether a single $50 booster box or a $50,000 shipment—will be subject to a 15% tariff.
This tariff isn’t charged to Japanese sellers. It’s paid by the American importer (whether that’s a business like Mankey Business, or an individual collector ordering a box from Yahoo Japan).
Two Possible Outcomes for Prices
Let’s use a simple example. Suppose a Japanese exporter sells a booster box for $60. U.S. resellers used to list it at around $70. With the new tariff, that same box may end up closer to $80.
At that point, one of two things usually happens:
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Demand Drops – Collectors stop buying at $80. U.S. resellers import less, Japanese exporters feel the pinch, and eventually prices settle back down (maybe exporters lower their price to $50 so the U.S. market stabilizes around $70 again).
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Demand Absorbs It – Collectors accept $80 as the “new normal,” and that’s simply where the market stays.
Which scenario plays out depends on how much heat the set has. Reprints, scarcity, singles values, and hype cycles will all interact with tariffs to determine where prices land.
Shipping Costs Still Matter
For consumers who import directly, shipping fees add another layer. For example, using imaginary numbers:
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$24 DHL flat rate for a single box
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$68 DHL flat rate for a case
That means unless you’re importing in bulk, buying through a middleman will almost always be cheaper. Middlemen spread those shipping and tariff costs across dozens—or even hundreds—of boxes, making their per-box price far lower than what a single consumer can achieve.
Direct importing can still make sense for hobbyists who enjoy the process of ordering from Japan themselves, but from a purely financial standpoint, middleman sellers usually win on price.
Leveling the Playing Field
Here’s the big picture:
When only businesses importing large amounts had to pay tariffs, consumers (and sometimes smaller shops) could sidestep them by importing directly under the $800 threshold. That often made it hard for shops to compete on price.
Now that everyone pays tariffs—consumers and businesses alike—the playing field levels out. Prices rise across the board, but no one has a unique advantage.
In the words of Brian at PokeNE— It’s like fast food: if only McDonald’s burgers had a 10% tax, people would just eat at Burger King. But if every chain gets taxed the same, people still eat fast food—they just pay a little more for it.
The “Priced In” Theory
When you hear the phrase priced in, it means the market has already adjusted in anticipation of a change—even before that change officially takes effect.
Right now, the de minimis rule doesn’t end until August 29th. But sellers and buyers alike are already anticipating higher costs once the rule is gone. That expectation alone can cause prices to creep upward before the tariffs actually hit.
So while you may not see a sharp overnight jump on August 30th, that’s because the adjustment has already been gradually priced into the market ahead of time. By the time the rule officially ends, the market may have already shifted to reflect the new reality.
So, What Happens Next?
In short:
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Prices will rise. Expect about a 15% increase across most Japanese Pokémon products in the U.S.
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Some sets will hold at higher prices, while others may reset lower if demand falls off.
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Direct importing remains viable, but tariffs and shipping flatten the gap between consumers and resellers.
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Nothing fundamentally changes—the market simply shifts to a new baseline.
At Mankey Business, I'll continue doing what I've always done: keeping pricing transparent and as close to cost as possible, while helping the community navigate these changes with clear information.
✅ Bottom line: The end of the de minimis rule makes Japanese Pokémon cards more expensive (maybe), but it doesn’t break the market. Collectors will still collect, businesses will still operate, and the hobby will adapt—just at a slightly higher price point.
Join the Conversation
What do you think about the end of the de minimis rule and its impact on the Japanese Pokémon card market? 💭
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!